Crude oil surges, metals rise nearly across the board, with alumina, COMEX silver, and rebar leading the gains; coking coal rises 2.3% [overnight market]

SMM reported on July 3:

Metal market:

Overnight, domestic market base metals rose across the board, with SHFE copper up 0.35%, SHFE nickel up 0.7%, SHFE lead up 0.64%, SHFE aluminum up 0.24%, SHFE zinc up 0.72%, and SHFE tin slightly higher. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2%, and the main continuous casting aluminum contract increased 0.3%.

The ferrous metals series all rose overnight, with iron ore up 1.61%, stainless steel up 0.36%, rebar up 1.02%, and HRC up 0.85%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 2.3%, and coke increased 1.31%.

Overseas market metals: LME base metals mostly rose, with LME copper up 0.77%, LME aluminum up 0.62%, LME lead up 1.25%, LME zinc up 1.44%, LME tin down 0.23%, and LME nickel up 0.88%.

Precious metals overnight: COMEX gold rose 0.56%, and COMEX silver increased 1.08%. SHFE gold rose 0.26%, and SHFE silver gained 0.71%.

As of 8:17 on July 3, overnight closing prices

》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard

Macro front

Domestic:

[SAMR Approves Release of 7 National Standards for AI, IT, IoT, etc.] The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) recently approved the release of a batch of important national standards. In emerging industries, seven national standards for AI, IT, IoT, etc., were issued to provide technical support for unleashing digital services and application capabilities. Five national standards for data centers, cybersecurity technologies, systems and software engineering were released to facilitate deep interconnection in the digital economy. Two national standards for electric earth-moving machinery safety and battery swapping system general requirements were issued to continuously improve the standardization system for electrification of traditional construction machinery, aiding the green transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Two mandatory national standards for tractor safety technical specifications and general safety requirements for construction machinery and equipment were published to enhance the safety of equipment and operation.

[CSRC: Maintaining Market Stability Remains the Top Priority for Regulatory Work] The Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) recently held an expanded meeting, emphasizing that maintaining market stability remains the top priority for regulatory work. It will promote the establishment of a normalized market stabilization mechanism, steadily and orderly prevent and control risks in areas such as bond defaults and private funds, and create a better environment for the high-quality development of the capital market.

[Cash Purchases of Gold Exceeding 100,000 Yuan to be Reported Starting August 1] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued the "Administrative Measures for Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing in Precious Metals and Gemstone Institutions," requiring institutions to submit large transaction reports within five working days for single or daily cumulative transactions exceeding 100,000 yuan. These measures aim to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing activities, strengthen anti-money laundering efforts in precious metals and gemstone institutions, and implement classified management based on money laundering risk profiles. 》Click for details

[CPCA: June nationwide passenger NEV wholesales estimated to rise 29% YoY and 3% MoM]The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released data based on preliminary monthly estimates, projecting June's nationwide passenger NEV wholesales at 1.26 million units, up 29% YoY and 3% MoM, with cumulative sales reaching 6.47 million units from January to June, up 38% YoY. Among producers, Tesla China sold 71,599 units in June.

US dollar developments:

The overnight US dollar index rose 0.14% to 96.78. Weaker-than-expected employment data raised hopes the Fed might cut interest rates sooner than market projections, with markets awaiting the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for further monetary policy cues. Earlier Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report showed the first decline in US private-sector jobs in over two years during June, suggesting the Fed could implement rate cuts as early as September. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated Tuesday that the central bank maintains a patient stance on further rate cuts but did not rule out moves at this month's meeting, stating all decisions depend on incoming data. This has elevated the importance of Thursday's monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which will provide deeper insight into labor market conditions.

Other currency developments:

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann estimated the UK's neutral real interest rate stands at 0.75-1% and nominal neutral rate at 2.75-3%, suggesting five rate cuts may be needed in 2025. (Financial Associated Press)

Macro highlights:

Today's releases include: global June ANZ Commodity Price Index YoY/MoM, China June Caixin Services PMI, Australia May trade balance/exports MoM/imports MoM, Russia June SPGI Services PMI, Switzerland June CPI YoY, UK June final SPGI Services PMI/official government net reserve changes, US June nonfarm payrolls change (seasonally adjusted)/average hourly earnings YoY/private sector nonfarm payrolls change/labor force participation rate/manufacturing employment change (seasonally adjusted)/unemployment rate/May trade balance/initial jobless claims (week ended June 28)/continuing jobless claims (week ended June 21), Canada May trade balance, Brazil June seasonally adjusted SPGI Services/Composite PMI, US May durable goods orders revision/factory orders MoM/June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Notably: the Ministry of Commerce held its first regular press conference in July; the European Central Bank released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; and Bostic, the 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, delivered a speech on US monetary policy.

In addition, it is worth noting that: due to the US Independence Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed on the afternoon of July 3. The New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4, and trading of stock index futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early at 01:15 Beijing time on July 4.

In terms of crude oil:

both WTI and Brent crude oil futures surged significantly overnight, with WTI crude oil rising by 3.18% and Brent crude oil by 3.04%. This followed Iran's suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. According to a report by CCTV News on July 2, US President Trump stated on the same day that the US had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. However, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories limited the oil price rally to some extent.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US domestic crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week, reaching 419 million barrels. A survey showed that analysts had expected inventories to decrease by 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising concerns about consumption during the summer driving peak, after which oil prices pared back earlier gains. (Wenhua Comprehensive)